Risk Score for Prediction of Dialysis After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

BACKGROUND: Dialysis is a rare but serious complication after transcatheter aortic valve replacement. We analyzed the large multicenter TRITAVI (transfusion requirements in transcatheter aortic valve implantation) registry in order to develop and validate a clinical score assessing this risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 10 071 consecutive patients were enrolled in 19 European centers. Patients were randomly assigned (2:1) to a derivation and validation cohort. Two scores were developed, 1 including only preprocedural variables (TRITAVIpre) and 1 also including procedural variables (TRITAVIpost). In the 6714 patients of the derivation cohort (age 82±6 years, 48% men), preprocedural factors independently associated with dialysis and included in the TRITAVIpre score were male sex, diabetes, prior coronary artery bypass graft, anemia, nonfemoral access, and creatinine clearance <30 mL/min per m2. Additional independent predictors among procedural features were volume of contrast, need for transfusion, and major vascular complications. Both scores showed a good discrimination power for identifying risk for dialysis with C-statistic 0.78 for TRITAVIpre and C-statistic 0.88 for TRITAVIpost score. Need for dialysis increased from the lowest to the highest of 3 risk score groups (from 0.3% to 3.9% for TRITAVIpre score and from 0.1% to 6.2% for TRITAVIpost score). Analysis of the 3357 patients of the validation cohort (age 82±7 years, 48% men) confirmed the good discrimination power of both scores (C-statistic 0.80 for TRITAVIpre and 0.81 for TRITAVIpost score). Need for dialysis was associated with a significant increase in 1-year mortality (from 6.9% to 54.4%; P=0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A simple preprocedural clinical score can help predict the risk of dialysis after transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

Stroke after Cardiac Surgery: A Risk Factor Analysis of 580,117 Patients from UK National Adult Cardiac Surgical Audit Cohort.

Cerebrovascular accident is the most ominous complication observed after cardiac surgery, carrying an increased risk of morbidity and mortality. Analysis of the problem shows its multidimensional nature. In this study, we aimed to identify major determinants among classic variables, either demographic, clinical or type of surgical procedure, based on the analysis of a large dataset of 580,117 patients from the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgical Audit (NACSA). For this purpose, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were utilized to determine associations between predictors and dependent variable (Stroke after cardiac surgery). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were constructed for each independent variable. Statistical analysis allows us to confirm with greater certainty the predictive value of some variables such as age, gender, diabetes mellitus (diabetes treated with insulin OR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.23-1.53), and systemic arterial hypertension (OR = 1.11, 95%CI = 1.05-1.16);, to emphasize the role of preoperative atrial fibrillation (OR = 1.10, 95%CI = 1.03-1.16) extracardiac arteriopathy (OR = 1.70, 95%CI = 1.58-1.82), and previous cerebral vascular accident (OR 1.71, 95%CI = 1.6-1.9), and to reappraise others like smoking status (crude OR = 1.00, 95%CI = 0.93-1.07 for current smokers) or BMI (OR = 0.98, 95%CI = 0.97-0.98). This could allow for better preoperative risk stratification. In addition, identifying those surgical procedures (for example thoracic aortic surgery associated with a crude OR of 3.72 and 95%CI = 3.53-3.93) burdened by a high risk of neurological complications may help broaden the field of preventive and protective techniques.

Left Atrial Strain to Predict Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery being associated with poorer outcomes. Revealing before the operation of left atrial subtle structural/functional abnormalities may help to identify patients at increased risk of POAF. We investigated the role of left atrial strain parameters by preoperative speckle tracking echocardiography as independent predictors of POAF in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft were prospectively enrolled at three Italian centers. All patients underwent transthoracic echocardiography before the operation. The occurrence of POAF up to discharge was monitored. RESULTS: Overall, a total of 310 patients were included. POAF was demonstrated in 103 patients (33%). At receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, lower global peak atrial longitudinal strain (PALS) values significantly predicted the risk of POAF (area under the curve, 0.74; P<0.001). The optimal cutoff value for the arrhythmia prediction was a global PALS value <28%, with a specificity of 86% and a sensitivity of 36%. The incidence of POAF was 51% in patients with global PALS <28% versus 14% in those with PALS ≥28% (P<0.001), with a POAF-free survival at Kaplan-Meier analysis of 45.4% and 85.7%, respectively (P<0.001). At multivariate analysis, a global PALS <28% carried a 3.6-fold higher risk of POAF (hazard ratio, 3.6 [95% CI, 2.2-5.9]; P<0.001). The risk increase was even higher when PALS <28% was associated with age ≥70 years (adjusted hazard ratio, 11.2 [4.7-26.6], P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A presurgery global PALS <28% is a specific parameter to stratify patients at increased risk of POAF after coronary artery bypass graft. This assessment can be useful to identify patients at higher arrhythmic risk in whom perioperative preventive strategies and stricter monitoring aimed at early diagnosing and treating POAF may be applied.

Comparative Analysis of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Outcomes in Women Using Different Conduits in the National UK Data Set.

BACKGROUND: There is limited report of outcomes in women undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with left internal thoracic artery and different second conduits (saphenous vein graft [SVG], radial artery [RA], and right internal thoracic artery [RITA]). METHODS: The National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit database was queried for women undergoing isolated CABG with left internal thoracic artery graft in the United Kingdom from 1996 to 2019. Propensity score-based pairwise comparisons were performed between graft types. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: The study included 58,063 women (SVG, n = 48,881 [84.2%]; RA, n = 6136 [10.6%]; RITA, n = 2445 [4.2%]). SVG use was stable over the years; RA and RITA use decreased. In-hospital mortality was similar between the RA and RITA grafts (2.3% vs 2.8%; odds ratio [OR], 0.80; 95% CI, 0.53-1.22; P = .39) and between the RA and SVG (2.3% vs 2.0%; OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.93-1.55; P = .17) but higher in the RITA group compared with the SVG (2.7% vs 1.4%; OR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.27-3.36; P = .004). Women receiving the RITA graft were more likely to have sternal wound infection (SWI) compared with the RA (0.6% vs 0.06%; P = .004) and the SVG (0.6% vs 0.2%; P = .032). SWI was consistently associated with higher risk of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Conduit selection may affect operative outcomes in women undergoing CABG. The RA shows similar mortality and risk of deep SWI as the SVG.

Development and Evaluation of a Natural Language Processing System for Curating a Trans-Thoracic Echocardiogram (TTE) Database.

BACKGROUND: Although electronic health records (EHR) provide useful insights into disease patterns and patient treatment optimisation, their reliance on unstructured data presents a difficulty. Echocardiography reports, which provide extensive pathology information for cardiovascular patients, are particularly challenging to extract and analyse, because of their narrative structure. Although natural language processing (NLP) has been utilised successfully in a variety of medical fields, it is not commonly used in echocardiography analysis. OBJECTIVES: To develop an NLP-based approach for extracting and categorising data from echocardiography reports by accurately converting continuous (e.g., LVOT VTI, AV VTI and TR Vmax) and discrete (e.g., regurgitation severity) outcomes in a semi-structured narrative format into a structured and categorised format, allowing for future research or clinical use. METHODS: 135,062 Trans-Thoracic Echocardiogram (TTE) reports were derived from 146967 baseline echocardiogram reports and split into three cohorts: Training and Validation (n = 1075), Test Dataset (n = 98) and Application Dataset (n = 133,889). The NLP system was developed and was iteratively refined using medical expert knowledge. The system was used to curate a moderate-fidelity database from extractions of 133,889 reports. A hold-out validation set of 98 reports was blindly annotated and extracted by two clinicians for comparison with the NLP extraction. Agreement, discrimination, accuracy and calibration of outcome measure extractions were evaluated. RESULTS: Continuous outcomes including LVOT VTI, AV VTI and TR Vmax exhibited perfect inter-rater reliability using intra-class correlation scores (ICC = 1.00, p < 0.05) alongside high R2 values, demonstrating an ideal alignment between the NLP system and clinicians. A good level (ICC = 0.75-0.9, p < 0.05) of inter-rater reliability was observed for outcomes such as LVOT Diam, Lateral MAPSE, Peak E Velocity, Lateral E' Velocity, PV Vmax, Sinuses of Valsalva and Ascending Aorta diameters. Furthermore, the accuracy rate for discrete outcome measures was 91.38% in the confusion matrix analysis, indicating effective performance. CONCLUSIONS: The NLP-based technique yielded good results when it came to extracting and categorising data from echocardiography reports. The system demonstrated a high degree of agreement and concordance with clinician extractions. This study contributes to the effective use of semi-structured data by providing a useful tool for converting semi-structured text to a structured echo report that can be used for data management. Additional validation and implementation in healthcare settings can improve data availability and support research and clinical decision-making.

Minimally Invasive Strategy to Repair Mitral Valve after Repeated Coronary Revascularization: A Case Report and Literature Review.

Redo cardiac surgery after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting (CABG) is burdened by high morbidity and mortality, either intraoperatively and postoperatively, with the repeated sternotomy playing a crucial role as risk factor. The right minithoracotomy approach guarantees a safer control on conduits integrity and the right ventricular wall and a low impact on the respiratory mechanics. Herein, we report a patient who previously underwent two CABG (coronary artery bypass grafting) procedures and who was admitted to the hospital with a picture of heart failure caused by a severe mitral regurgitation. He was successfully submitted to a mitral valve repair on a beating heart via the right minithoracotomy approach.

Influence of diabetes and obesity on ten-year outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting in the arterial revascularisation trial.

AIMS: Diabetes and obesity are common conditions which can influence outcomes after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of diabetes and obesity, and their interactions, on ten-year outcomes following CABG. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients enrolled in the Arterial Revascularisation Trial (ART) were stratified by diabetes and obesity at baseline. Diabetes was further stratified into insulin and non-insulin dependent. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 10 years of follow-up. Secondary outcomes were the composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke at 10 years, and sternal wound complications at 6 months follow-up. A total of 3096 patients were included in the analysis (24% with diabetes, 30% with obesity). Patients in the "diabetes/no obesity" group had a higher risk of all-cause mortality following CABG (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.64, p = 0.01) compared to the reference group of "no diabetes/no obesity". No excess risk was observed in the "no diabetes/obesity" or "diabetes/obesity" groups. Patients with insulin dependent diabetes had a significantly higher ten-year mortality risk compared to no diabetes (aHR 1.85, 95% CI 1.41-2.44, p = 0.00). Patients in the "diabetes/no obesity" and "diabetes/obesity groups" had a higher risk of sternal wound complications (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.39-3.79, p < 0.001 and HR 3.21, 95% CI 1.89-5.45, p < 0.001 respectively). The composite outcome results were consistent with the mortality results. CONCLUSION: Diabetes, especially insulin dependent diabetes, is associated with a higher ten-year mortality risk after CABG, in contrast to obesity which does not appear to increase long term mortality compared to non-obese. The interaction between diabetes and obesity shows an apparent "protective" effect of obesity irrespective of diabetes on mortality. Both conditions are associated with a higher risk of post-operative sternal wound infections.

Coronary artery bypass grafting using bilateral internal thoracic arteries in patients with diabetes and obesity: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Patients with diabetes and obesity are at higher risk of adverse long-term outcomes following coronary artery bypass grafting. The use of bilateral internal thoracic arteries (BITA) can potentially offer survival benefit in higher risk patients compared to single internal thoracic artery (SITA), but BITA is not routinely used due to lack of clear evidence of efficacy and concerns over sternal wound complications. Methods: Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library were searched for studies comparing the efficacy and safety of BITA and SITA grafting in patients with diabetes and obesity. Meta-analysis of mortality and sternal wound complications was performed. Results: We identified eight observational and ten propensity matched studies, and one RCT, comparing BITA and SITA which included patients with diabetes (n = 19,589); two propensity matched studies and one RCT which included patients with obesity (n = 6,972); mean follow up was 10.5 and 11.3 years respectively. Meta-analysis demonstrated a mortality reduction for BITA compared to SITA in patients with diabetes (risk ratio [RR] 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-0.90; p = 0.0003). In patients with obesity there was a non-significant reduction in mortality in the BITA group (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.47-1.12; p = 0.15). There was a significantly higher rate of sternal wound complications following BITA observed in patients with diabetes (RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.23-1.90; p = 0.0001) and obesity (RR 2.24, 95% CI 1.63-3.07; p < 0.00001). Conclusions: BITA is associated with better long-term survival in patients with diabetes. The effects of BITA grafting in patients with obesity are uncertain. BITA is associated with higher rates of sternal wound complications compared to SITA in both patients with diabetes and obesity.

Genetic Basis, New Diagnostic Approaches, and Updated Therapeutic Strategies of the Syndromic Aortic Diseases: Marfan, Loeys-Dietz, and Vascular Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome.

Syndromic aortic diseases (SADs) encompass various pathological manifestations affecting the aorta caused by known genetic factors, such as aneurysms, dissections, and ruptures. However, the genetic mutation underlying aortic pathology also gives rise to clinical manifestations affecting other vessels and systems. As a consequence, the main syndromes currently identified as Marfan, Loeys-Dietz, and vascular Ehlers-Danlos are characterized by a complex clinical picture. In this contribution, we provide an overview of the genetic mutations currently identified in order to have a better understanding of the pathogenic mechanisms. Moreover, an update is presented on the basis of the most recent diagnostic criteria, which enable an early diagnosis. Finally, therapeutic strategies are proposed with the goal of improving the rates of patient survival and the quality of life of those affected by these SADs.

Does previous asbestos exposure increase the risk of a post coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) pleural effusion - a routine data study?

BACKGROUND: Development of pleural effusion (PE) following CABG is common. Post-CABG PE are divided into early- (within 30 days of surgery) and delayed-onset (30 days-1 year) which are likely due to distinct pathological processes. Some experts suggest asbestos exposure may confer an independent risk for late-onset post-CABG PE, however no large studies have explored this potential association. RESEARCH QUESTION: To explore possible association between asbestos exposure and post-CABG PE using routine data. METHODS: All patients who underwent CABG 01/04/2013-31/03/2018 were identified from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) Database. This England-wide population was evaluated for evidence of asbestos exposure, pleural plaques or asbestosis and a diagnosis of PE or PE-related procedure from 30 days to 1 year post-CABG. Patients with evidence of PE three months prior to CABG were excluded, as were patients with a new mesothelioma diagnosis. RESULTS: 68,150 patients were identified, of whom 1,003 (1%) were asbestos exposed and 2,377 (3%) developed late-onset PE. After adjusting for demographic data, Index of Multiple Deprivation and Charlson Co-morbidity Index, asbestos exposed patients had increased odds of PE diagnosis or related procedure such as thoracentesis or drainage (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.03-1.76, p = 0.04). In those with evidence of PE requiring procedure alone, the adjusted OR was 1.66 (95% CI 1.14-2.40, p = 0.01). Additional subgroup analysis of the 518 patients coded for pleural plaques and asbestosis alone revealed an adjusted OR of post-CABG PE requiring a procedure of 2.16 (95% CI 1.38-3.37, p = 0.002). INTERPRETATION: This large-scale study demonstrates prior asbestos exposure is associated with modestly increased risk of post-CABG PE development. The risk association appears higher in patients with assigned clinical codes indicative of radiological evidence of asbestos exposure (pleural plaques or asbestosis). This association may fit with a possible inflammatory co-pathogenesis, with asbestos exposure 'priming' the pleura resulting in greater propensity for PE evolution following the physiological insult of CABG surgery. Further work, including prospective studies and clinicopathological correlation are suggested to explore this further.

High dose esomeprazole as an anti-inflammatory agent in sepsis: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is caused by dysregulated immune responses due to infection and still presents high mortality rate and limited efficacious therapies, apart from antibiotics. Recent evidence suggests that very high dose proton pump inhibitors might regulate major sepsis mediators' secretion by monocytes, which might attenuate excessive host reactions and improve clinical outcomes. This effect is obtained with doses which are approximately 50 times higher than prophylactic esomeprazole single daily administration and 17 times higher than the cumulative dose of a three day prophylaxis. We aim to perform a randomized trial to investigate if high dose esomeprazole reduces organ dysfunction in patients with sepsis or septic shock. METHODS: This study, called PPI-SEPSIS, is a multicenter, randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial on critically ill septic patients admitted to the emergency department or intensive care unit. A total of 300 patients will be randomized to receive high dose esomeprazole (80 mg bolus followed by 12 mg/h for 72 h and a second 80 mg bolus 12 h after the first one) or equivolume placebo (sodium chloride 0.9%), with 1:1 allocation. The primary endpoint of the study will be mean daily Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score over 10 days. Secondary outcomes will include antibiotic-free days, single organ failure severity, intensive care unit-free days at day 28, and mortality. DISCUSSION: This trial aims to test the efficacy of high dose esomeprazole to reduce acute organ dysfunction in patients with septic shock. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with the trial identification NCT03452865 in March 2018.

Outcome monitoring and risk stratification after cardiac procedure in neonates, infants, children and young adults born with congenital heart disease: protocol for a multicentre prospective cohort study (Children OMACp).

INTRODUCTION: Congenital heart disease (CHD) represents the most common birth defect, affecting from 0.4% to 1.2% of children born in developed countries. The survival of these patients has increased significantly, but CHD remains one of the major causes of neonatal and childhood death. The aetiology of CHD is complex, with some evidence of both genetic and environmental causes. However, there is still lack of knowledge regarding modifiable risk factors and molecular and genetic mechanisms underlying the development of CHD. This study aims to develop a prospective cohort of patients undergoing cardiac procedures that will bring together routinely collected clinical data and biological samples from patients and their biological mothers, in order to investigate risk factors and predictors of postoperative-outcomes, as well as better understanding the effect of the surgical intervention on the early and long-term outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Children OMACp (OMACp, outcome monitoring after cardiac procedure in congenital heart disease) is a multicentre, prospective cohort study recruiting children with CHD undergoing a cardiac procedure. The study aims to recruit 3000 participants over 5 years (2019-2024) across multiple UK sites. Routine clinical data will be collected, as well as participant questionnaires collecting sociodemographic, NHS resource use and quality of life data. Biological samples (blood, urine and surgical waste tissue from patients, and blood and urine samples from biological mothers) will be collected where consent has been obtained. Follow-up outcome and questionnaire data will be collected for 5 years. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the London-Brent Research Ethics Committee on 30 July 2019 (19/SW/0113). Participants (or their parent/guardian if under 16 years of age) must provide informed consent prior to being recruited into the study. Mothers who wish to take part must also provide informed consent prior to being recruited. The study is sponsored by University Hospitals Bristol and Weston Foundation Trust and is managed by the University of Bristol. Children OMACp is adopted onto the National Institute for Health Research Clinical Research Network portfolio. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, presentation at conference, meetings and through patient organisations and newsletters. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN17650644.

Bleeding risk in patients prescribed dual antiplatelet therapy and triple therapy after coronary interventions: the ADAPTT retrospective population-based cohort studies.

Background: Bleeding among populations undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting and among conservatively managed patients with acute coronary syndrome exposed to different dual antiplatelet therapy and triple therapy (i.e. dual antiplatelet therapy plus an anticoagulant) has not been previously quantified. Objectives: The objectives were to estimate hazard ratios for bleeding for different antiplatelet and triple therapy regimens, estimate resources and the associated costs of treating bleeding events, and to extend existing economic models of the cost-effectiveness of dual antiplatelet therapy. Design: The study was designed as three retrospective population-based cohort studies emulating target randomised controlled trials. Setting: The study was set in primary and secondary care in England from 2010 to 2017. Participants: Participants were patients aged ≥ 18 years undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting or emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (for acute coronary syndrome), or conservatively managed patients with acute coronary syndrome. Data sources: Data were sourced from linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics. Interventions: Coronary artery bypass grafting and conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome: aspirin (reference) compared with aspirin and clopidogrel. Percutaneous coronary intervention: aspirin and clopidogrel (reference) compared with aspirin and prasugrel (ST elevation myocardial infarction only) or aspirin and ticagrelor. Main outcome measures: Primary outcome: any bleeding events up to 12 months after the index event. Secondary outcomes: major or minor bleeding, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, mortality from bleeding, myocardial infarction, stroke, additional coronary intervention and major adverse cardiovascular events. Results: The incidence of any bleeding was 5% among coronary artery bypass graft patients, 10% among conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome patients and 9% among emergency percutaneous coronary intervention patients, compared with 18% among patients prescribed triple therapy. Among coronary artery bypass grafting and conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome patients, dual antiplatelet therapy, compared with aspirin, increased the hazards of any bleeding (coronary artery bypass grafting: hazard ratio 1.43, 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 1.69; conservatively-managed acute coronary syndrome: hazard ratio 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 2.57) and major adverse cardiovascular events (coronary artery bypass grafting: hazard ratio 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 3.46; conservatively-managed acute coronary syndrome: hazard ratio 1.57, 95% confidence interval 1.38 to 1.78). Among emergency percutaneous coronary intervention patients, dual antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor, compared with dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel, increased the hazard of any bleeding (hazard ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.82), but did not reduce the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.27). Among ST elevation myocardial infarction percutaneous coronary intervention patients, dual antiplatelet therapy with prasugrel, compared with dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel, increased the hazard of any bleeding (hazard ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 2.12), but did not reduce the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 1.51). Health-care costs in the first year did not differ between dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel and aspirin monotherapy among either coronary artery bypass grafting patients (mean difference £94, 95% confidence interval -£155 to £763) or conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome patients (mean difference £610, 95% confidence interval -£626 to £1516), but among emergency percutaneous coronary intervention patients were higher for those receiving dual antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor than for those receiving dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel, although for only patients on concurrent proton pump inhibitors (mean difference £1145, 95% confidence interval £269 to £2195). Conclusions: This study suggests that more potent dual antiplatelet therapy may increase the risk of bleeding without reducing the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events. These results should be carefully considered by clinicians and decision-makers alongside randomised controlled trial evidence when making recommendations about dual antiplatelet therapy. Limitations: The estimates for bleeding and major adverse cardiovascular events may be biased from unmeasured confounding and the exclusion of an eligible subgroup of patients who could not be assigned an intervention. Because of these limitations, a formal cost-effectiveness analysis could not be conducted. Future work: Future work should explore the feasibility of using other UK data sets of routinely collected data, less susceptible to bias, to estimate the benefit and harm of antiplatelet interventions. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN76607611. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

People who have a heart attack are treated with a stent to open up the blocked artery that caused the heart attack, with surgery to bypass the blocked artery or with medication only. Whatever the treatment, they are prescribed one or more antiplatelet drugs, either aspirin only or aspirin and an additional antiplatelet (clopidogrel, prasugrel or ticagrelor), for 12 months after the heart attack. Antiplatelets are given to prevent another heart attack, but increase the risk of bleeding. We used a large general practice database and a database describing patients' attendances and admissions to hospital to determine how many people bleed with different antiplatelet combinations. We found that, overall, up to 1 in 10 people taking antiplatelets (rising to 2 in 10 if also taking an anticoagulant such as warfarin or dabigatran) reported a bleed. Among patients treated with surgery or medication only, we compared aspirin only (which is a less potent therapy) with aspirin and clopidogrel (a more potent therapy). Among patients treated with stents, we compared aspirin and clopidogrel (less potent therapy) with aspirin and prasugrel or ticagrelor (more potent therapy). In all three populations, the more potent therapy increased the risk of bleeding by about one and a half times, but this was not offset by a reduced risk of having a subsequent heart attack. This may be explained by low adherence to the medication: between one-third and almost half of all patients did not adhere to their regimen, and non-adherence was generally higher among patients taking a more potent therapy. It may also be explained by bias inherent in the study, for example if the groups prescribed different antiplatelet regimens had different risks of having another heart attack. Nevertheless, the results show that doctors should be cautious about prescribing more potent antiplatelet therapy because it may increase serious bleeds without necessarily reducing the number of heart attacks.

Cardiac surgery risk prediction using ensemble machine learning to incorporate legacy risk scores: A benchmarking study.

Objective: The introduction of new clinical risk scores (e.g. European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II) superseding original scores (e.g. EuroSCORE I) with different variable sets typically result in disparate datasets due to high levels of missingness for new score variables prior to time of adoption. Little is known about the use of ensemble learning to incorporate disparate data from legacy scores. We tested the hypothesised that Homogenenous and Heterogeneous Machine Learning (ML) ensembles will have better performance than ensembles of Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) for combining knowledge from EuroSCORE I legacy data with EuroSCORE II data to predict cardiac surgery risk. Methods: Using the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit dataset, we trained 12 different base learner models, based on two different variable sets from either EuroSCORE I (LogES) or EuroScore II (ES II), partitioned by the time of score adoption (1996-2016 or 2012-2016) and evaluated on holdout set (2017-2019). These base learner models were ensembled using nine different combinations of six ML algorithms to produce homogeneous or heterogeneous ensembles. Performance was assessed using a consensus metric. Results: Xgboost homogenous ensemble (HE) was the highest performing model (clinical effectiveness metric (CEM) 0.725) with area under the curve (AUC) (0.8327; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8323-0.8329) followed by Random Forest HE (CEM 0.723; AUC 0.8325; 95%CI 0.8320-0.8326). Across different heterogenous ensembles, significantly better performance was obtained by combining siloed datasets across time (CEM 0.720) than building ensembles of either 1996-2011 (t-test adjusted, p = 1.67×10-6) or 2012-2019 (t-test adjusted, p = 1.35×10-193) datasets alone. Conclusions: Both homogenous and heterogenous ML ensembles performed significantly better than DMA ensemble of Bayesian Update models. Time-dependent ensemble combination of variables, having differing qualities according to time of score adoption, enabled previously siloed data to be combined, leading to increased power, clinical interpretability of variables and usage of data.

Comparison of machine learning techniques in prediction of mortality following cardiac surgery: analysis of over 220 000 patients from a large national database.

OBJECTIVES: To perform a systematic comparison of in-hospital mortality risk prediction post-cardiac surgery, between the predominant scoring system-European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II, logistic regression (LR) retrained on the same variables and alternative machine learning techniques (ML)-random forest (RF), neural networks (NN), XGBoost and weighted support vector machine. METHODS: Retrospective analyses of prospectively routinely collected data on adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the UK from January 2012 to March 2019. Data were temporally split 70:30 into training and validation subsets. Mortality prediction models were created using the 18 variables of EuroSCORE II. Comparisons of discrimination, calibration and clinical utility were then conducted. Changes in model performance, variable-importance over time and hospital/operation-based model performance were also reviewed. RESULTS: Of the 227 087 adults who underwent cardiac surgery during the study period, there were 6258 deaths (2.76%). In the testing cohort, there was an improvement in discrimination [XGBoost (95% confidence interval (CI) area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), 0.834-0.834, F1 score, 0.276-0.280) and RF (95% CI AUC, 0.833-0.834, F1, 0.277-0.281)] compared with EuroSCORE II (95% CI AUC, 0.817-0.818, F1, 0.243-0.245). There was no significant improvement in calibration with ML and retrained-LR compared to EuroSCORE II. However, EuroSCORE II overestimated risk across all deciles of risk and over time. The calibration drift was lowest in NN, XGBoost and RF compared with EuroSCORE II. Decision curve analysis showed XGBoost and RF to have greater net benefit than EuroSCORE II. CONCLUSIONS: ML techniques showed some statistical improvements over retrained-LR and EuroSCORE II. The clinical impact of this improvement is modest at present. However the incorporation of additional risk factors in future studies may improve upon these findings and warrants further study.

Formal consensus study on surgery to replace the aortic valve in adults aged 18-60 years.

OBJECTIVE: There is uncertainty about surgical procedures for adult patients aged 18-60 years undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR). Options include conventional AVR (mechanical, mAVR; tissue, tAVR), the pulmonary autograft (Ross) and aortic valve neocuspidisation (Ozaki). Transcatheter treatment may be an option for selected patients. We used formal consensus methodology to make recommendations about the suitability of each procedure. METHODS: A working group, supported by a patient advisory group, developed a list of clinical scenarios across seven domains (anatomy, presentation, cardiac/non-cardiac comorbidities, concurrent treatments, lifestyle, preferences). A consensus group of 12 clinicians rated the appropriateness of each surgical procedure for each scenario on a 9-point Likert scale on two separate occasions (before and after a 1-day meeting). RESULTS: There was a consensus that each procedure was appropriate (A) or inappropriate (I) for all clinical scenarios as follows: mAVR: total 76% (57% A, 19% I); tAVR: total 68% (68% A, 0% I); Ross: total 66% (39% A, 27% I); Ozaki: total 31% (3% A, 28% I). The remainder of percentages to 100% reflects the degree of uncertainty. There was a consensus that transcatheter aortic valve implantation is appropriate for 5 of 68 (7%) of all clinical scenarios (including frailty, prohibitive surgical risk and very limited life span). CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based expert opinion emerging from a formal consensus process indicates that besides conventional AVR options, there is a high degree of certainty about the suitability of the Ross procedure in patients aged 18-60 years. Future clinical guidelines should include the option of the Ross procedure in aortic prosthetic valve selection.

Impact of Preoperative Atrial Fibrillation on In-Hospital Outcomes of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting.

Perioperative atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased mortality, morbidity, and excess healthcare costs. The objective of our study was to assess if preoperative AF in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting is a predictor of operative mortality, postoperative stroke, and need for postoperative dialysis by interrogating a large registry database. We included all isolated procedures performed between February 1996 and March 2019. We used a generalized linear mixed model to assess the effect of preoperative AF on mortality stroke and the need for postoperative dialysis after adjusting for the relevant confounders derived from EuroSCORE 2. Confounders considered included age, gender, neurological dysfunction, renal dysfunction, recent myocardial infarction, pulmonary disease, unstable angina, NYHA class, pulmonary hypertension, diabetes on insulin and peripheral vascular disease, and urgency of the operation. We treated the hospital and operating consultant as random effect variables. We also performed LV function subgroup analyses to assess the effect of preoperative AF on the outcomes of interest. The incidence of pre-existent AF in the cohort of patients we analyzed (N = 356,040 patients) was 3.5% (N = 12,664). In the unadjusted baseline characteristics, preoperative AF patients had more associated comorbidities. After adjustment, preoperative AF remained a significant predictor of increased mortality (odds ratio [OR]: 1.63, confidence interval [CI] 1.48-1.79, p < 0.001), stroke (OR: 1.33, CI 1.16-1.54, p = 0.001), and need for renal dialysis (OR:1.61, CI 1.46-1.78, p < 0.001). Preoperative AF was a significant predictor of adverse outcomes in patients with moderate and good LV function but not in patients with poor LV function (EF <30%). Our study suggests that preoperative AF is associated with an increased risk for perioperative mortality and stroke in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

Network meta-analysis comparing blood cardioplegia, Del Nido cardioplegia and custodiol cardioplegia in minimally invasive cardiac surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Minimally invasive cardiac surgery has been evolving, with the intention of reducing surgical trauma, improve cosmesis and patient satisfaction. Single dose, crystalloid cardioplegia such as Del Nido cardioplegia and Custoidol solution have been increasingly used to reduce the interruption from repeating cardioplegia dosing to minimise the cardiopulmonary bypass and cross clamp time. However, the best cardioplegia for myocardial protection in adult minimally invasive cardiac surgery remains controversial. We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to analyse the current evidence in the literature. METHOD: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed following the updated 2020 PRISMA guideline. Articles published in the five major electronic databases up 1st of April 2021 were identified and reviewed. The primary outcome was in-hospital or 30-day mortality. Traditional pairwise and Bayesian network meta-analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Nine articles were included in this study. The use of Del Nido cardioplegia was associated with a lower volume of cardioplegia used (Del Nido vs Blood, 1105.62 mL+/-123.47 vs 2569.46 mL+/-1515.52, p<0.001), cardiopulmonary bypass (Del Nido vs Custoidol vs Blood: 91.67+/-14.78 vs 138.05 +/- 21.30 vs 119.38+/-26.91 minutes, p<0.001) and cross-clamp time (Del Nido vs Custoidol vs Blood: 74.99+/-18.55 vs 82.01 +/- 17.28 vs 93.66+/-8.88 minutes, p < 0.001). No differences were observed in the incidence of in-hospital/30-day mortality rate, new onset of atrial fibrillation and stroke. Ranking analysis showed the Custoidol solution has the highest probability to be the first ranked cardioplegia. CONCLUSION: No differences were found between blood and crystalloid cardioplegia in adult minimally invasive cardiac surgery in several clinical outcomes. The cardioplegia of choice in minimally invasive cardiac surgery remains the surgeons' decision and preference.

Association between sternal wound complications and 10-year mortality following coronary artery bypass grafting.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between sternal wound complications (SWC) and long-term mortality in the Arterial Revascularization Trial. METHODS: Participants in the Arterial Revascularization Trial were stratified according to the occurrence of postoperative SWC. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at long-term follow-up. The secondary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events. RESULTS: Three thousand one hundred two patients were included in the analysis; the median follow-up was 10 years. 115 patients (3.7%) had postoperative SWC: 85 (73.9%) deep sternal wound infections and 30 (26.1%) sterile SWC that required sternal reconstruction. Independent predictors of SWC included diabetes (odds ratio [OR], 2.77; 95% CI, 1.79-4.30; P < .001), female sex (OR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.71-4.38; P < .001), prior stroke (OR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.12-5.98; P = .03), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.60-3.71; P < .001), and use of bilateral internal thoracic artery (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.12-2.59; P = .01). Postoperative SWC was significantly associated with long-term mortality. The Kaplan-Meier survival estimate was 91.3% at 5 years and 79.4% at 10 years in patients without SWC, and 86.1% and 64.3% in patients with SWC (log rank P < .001). The rate of major adverse cardiovascular events was also higher among patients who had SWC (n = 51 [44.3%] vs 758 [25.4%]; P < .001). Using multivariable analysis, the occurrence of SWC was independently associated with long-term mortality (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.30-2.54; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In the Arterial Revascularization Trial, postoperative SWC although uncommon were significantly associated with long-term mortality.